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Beware Of The Precision Rabbit Hole

Writer's picture: Ann Marie KenitzerAnn Marie Kenitzer

Strategic Planning Mirage - Don’t Get Pulled Down The Rabbit Hole!


Too often in corporate processes the intent to develop strategy by uncovering new areas of differentiated value and growth opportunity gets steered away from this journey of discovery and articulating direction, into a realm of ROI expectations, project schedules, and resource estimates. And before we know it, we’re addressing questions for details and planning certainty at tighter levels than we have accuracy for an unknown future. And now we’re in the Precision Rabbit Hole!


Going Down The Rabbit Hole – To enter into a bizarre, difficult, or problematic state or situation conceived of as a hole, in which the pursuit of one thing leads to other questions, problems, or pursuits.


Strategy Has Inherent Accuracy Limits


In a prior issue, You Can’t Plan Your Way Into a Strategy, I discussed how strategy is the act of navigating a series of integrated choices that move us forward to a hoped for future. It is ‘hoped for’ because we can only estimate or postulate a future, and don’t know the reality yet. Unless we can predict the future, strategy is essentially a set of assumptions or hypothetical story until our consequential choices are set into motion with the right sequence of moves to ‘make’ strategy become reality. But at the time of strategy inception, the accuracy is unclear.


Data analysis in strategy is critical to substantiate projections and estimates around market sizes, potential revenue, and anticipating what competition or customers might do. Yet the tendency to be wary of is driving high data precision or information specificity beyond a level or number of significant figures than the perceived accuracy. This can give a false sense of confidence around the level of accuracy or correctness of the information or projections for the future.


Balancing The Need For Accuracy and Precision


Planning is an important yet separate process, aligned with strategy. Planning is inherently accurate, because it’s all about knowing and organizing what is being done, when, and by whom. Planning provides the structure, turning strategic choices into an organized set of projects, assigns resources and budget, establishes measurable milestones and goals, and assigns deliverables and owners. As the challenge in planning is to reduce uncertainty, Planning also is most effective when precision is also high.


Accuracy: the quality or state of being correct, or closeness to the true value or target


Precision: how consistent, reliable, or reproducible the information is, or the amount of detail conveyed such as a number’s significant digits


Sometimes the planning mindset takes over and drives for the comfort and control of emphasizing precision, even when we’re really in a low accuracy space. Like when I was in supply chain and we were asked to update daily on delivery date changes for equipment with two year out lead times, or defining precise market sizes and segmentation in highly fragmented arena, or optimizing the timing of spends when different strategic scenarios of what to spend changed things an order of magnitude. The tighter we analyzed or monitored data, made it appear that we knew and could control the target. Wrong, we were pulled into a Precision Rabbit Hole.


When To Focus On Accuracy? If it is more important to understand the big picture or capture the context of the situation, then prioritize accuracy over precision. Similarly, if things are changing and it is important to make decisions or conclusions based on the relative validity of the information, and the consequences of error are significant.


When to Focus on Precision? If the need for consistency or reproducibility is high or the goal calls for significant detail in the information or actions, then prioritize precision.


Model of Effective Strategy & Planning




What Is The Practical Corridor?


In the above model on Effective Strategy & Planning, I’ve framed the Strategy Zone aligned with lower accuracy, while the Planning Zone is in the high accuracy regime. The green line frames what I call the Practical Corridor, which is the effective operating regime of strategy or planning relative to accuracy and precision. Moving from the Strategy Zone to the Planning Zone aligns with increasing accuracy as assumptions become reality, and actions shift from navigating into organizing. Moving from lower to higher precision is most effective in going from the Strategy Zone to Planning Zone, as a higher granularity of details and controls are needed to plan and implement the strategy.


I’ve already discussed the Precision Rabbit Hole that occurs with low accuracy and high precision in the Strategy Zone. The other situation to avoid, and is outside the Practical Corridor, is what I call the Inefficient Meander.


The Inefficient Meander occurs in the Planning Zone when accuracy is high for things like goals, problem clarity, schedule, and deliverables – yet the approach to achieve those known targets is not consistent, predictable, or repeatable. This is a region to avoid in planning as it may require extra time and resources, while it also creates challenges for scaling and replication given the lower precision approach. In this case, the target is reached, however in not a very efficient way.


Signals To Watch And Pitfalls To Avoid


When You Might Be Entering The Precision Rabbit Hole:

  • The plan is addressing a problem, but not necessarily the most important problem to be solved. There’s a sense of not being able to see the forest for the trees, missing the big picture, or having a false perception of reality.

  • The focus on getting data precise is taking attention away from seeing systemic errors or uncovering biases. Decision making or judgements are misguided or made from biased or off-target information.

  • Over focus on detailed data analysis before figuring out if you are in the best solution space. Like in a response surface, optimizing details along one local peak, when other peaks beyond the current field of vision have significantly higher impact.

  • Over-focus on spreadsheets and decimal point significant figures that are at best ball park estimates. Consider if you’re getting a false sense of confidence, as being more specific or precise does not guarantee correctness.


When You Might Be On An Inefficient Meander:

  • Wasted or unnecessary use of resources or time. A feeling of going in circles, being on a random walk, or continually trying a new process.

  • The plan is getting too complex, and emphasis becomes more focused on planning itself, rather than execution or checking if you’re still heading in the best direction or most effective way to solve the problem.


By staying mindful of whether we're in the Strategy or Planning Zone, and applying appropriate levels of accuracy and precision, we can increase effectiveness and stay out of the Precision Rabbit Hole or wander off on an Inefficient Meander.



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